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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 10-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to ATL 49, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-45-G.Ricci.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.29 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 40, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model