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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 7-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.11 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model