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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 31
Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 7
What Actually Happened
(5:47) 28-M.Davis left tackle to CAR 26 for 5 yards (7-S.Thompson).
The Three Options
GO
+1.68 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.55 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.81 EP
KICK
+0.54 EP
- 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
- 26% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT
-0.52 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
