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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(12:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to CAR 39 for 6 yards (34-D.Hall).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model