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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
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KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 20:20 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 💨 Windy Spread 8.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

DEN
38.7%
KC
61.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • KC on 7 more days rest than DEN
  • Wind 22 mph
  • DEN defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.164 vs Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +0.190 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DEN

Melvin Gordon RB Doubtful Shoulder
Garett Bolles T Questionable Ankle
Jonathon Cooper LB Questionable Neck
Nate Hairston CB Questionable Hip
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Ankle
Bobby Massie T Questionable Ankle
Quinn Meinerz G Questionable Knee
Dalton Risner G Questionable Back

KC

Rashad Fenton CB Out Knee
Lucas Niang T Out Ribs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 9
–
KC 22

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:05 TD KC (7:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 02:27 FG KC (2:27) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 0 – KC 10
  • Q2 13:38 FG DEN (13:38) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 3 – KC 10
  • Q3 05:39 FG KC (5:39) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 3 – KC 13
  • Q4 13:30 FG KC (13:30) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 3 – KC 16
  • Q4 09:56 TD KC (9:56) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen (56-B.Niemann) at KC 25. 49-D.Sorensen for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – KC 22
  • Q4 05:19 TD DEN (5:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – KC 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:09) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to KC 18, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 21-M.Hughes to KC 28 for 10 yards (94-A.Patrick; 27-N.Hairston).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:04) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to KC 18, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 21-M.Hughes to KC 21 for 3 yards (12-M.Ford, 53-J.Cooper).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 15 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 50%

    (2:27) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 20 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 82%

    (13:38) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:28) 5-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to DEN 5, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 19 for 14 yards (31-Da.Williams). PENALTY on DEN-94-A.Patrick, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at DEN 5.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 26%

    (6:28) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to KC 45 for 1 yard (53-A.Hitchens; 95-C.Jones).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 36%

    (4:27) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to KC 32 for 10 yards (35-C.Ward).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (1:12) 33-J.Williams up the middle to KC 9 for -1 yards (50-W.Gay, 24-M.Ingram).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to DEN 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 45 for 6 yards (23-A.Watts).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:05) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to KC 24, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 79%

    (5:39) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:08) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to DEN 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-13-B.Pringle at DEN 16.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 97%

    (13:30) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 77%

    (9:56) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen (56-B.Niemann) at KC 25. 49-D.Sorensen for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (5:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles up the middle to KC 42 for 6 yards (32-T.Mathieu).