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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:08) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to DEN 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-13-B.Pringle at DEN 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.19 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model