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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 89

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to DEN 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 45 for 6 yards (23-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 89, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 46, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model