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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.64 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model