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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 24

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model