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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 13

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(5:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP