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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 27

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(9:56) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen (56-B.Niemann) at KC 25. 49-D.Sorensen for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.22 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model