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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 46

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to KC 45 for 1 yard (53-A.Hitchens; 95-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.60 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model