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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 72

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to KC 24, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model