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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
Sunday 2021-11-21 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

WAS
40.8%
CAR
59.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Cam Newton (CAR): -0.113 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CAR starting Cam Newton in place of Phillip Walker)
  • WAS defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 19
–
CAR 24
Projected margin: CAR by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

WAS

Ricky Seals-Jones TE Out Hip
Shaka Toney DE Out Concussion
Benjamin St-Juste CB Questionable Concussion
Saahdiq Charles T Questionable Illness
Kendall Fuller CB Questionable Knee
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Groin

CAR

Stantley Thomas-Oliver CB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 27
–
CAR 21

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:37 TD CAR (9:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 2-Dj.Moore for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – CAR 6
  • Q2 13:33 TD WAS (13:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 11-C.Sims for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – CAR 7
  • Q2 06:00 TD CAR (6:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – CAR 13
  • Q2 00:14 TD WAS (:14) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-21-J.Chinn, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. WAS 13 – CAR 14
  • Q3 09:26 TD WAS (9:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 1-D.Carter for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – CAR 14
  • Q4 10:50 TD CAR (10:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 21 – CAR 20
  • Q4 04:18 FG WAS (4:18) 3-J.Slye 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 24 – CAR 21
  • Q4 01:54 FG WAS (1:54) 3-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 27 – CAR 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 34%

    (11:29) 22-C.McCaffrey right end to WAS 35 for 15 yards (55-C.Holcomb). PENALTY on WAS-55-C.Holcomb, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 35.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (8:06) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to CAR 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 22 for 10 yards (51-D.Mayo).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:00) 10-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to WAS 23, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:37) 10-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to WAS 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-38-M.Hartsfield.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:48) 10-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to WAS 23, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 12 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:34) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CAR 30, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 51%

    (1:07) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 1-D.Carter to CAR 25 for 18 yards (26-D.Jackson).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:15) 10-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 16 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 51%

    (15:00) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to CAR 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 51%

    (7:23) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 87-J.Bates to CAR 37 for 6 yards (26-D.Jackson) [53-B.Burns].

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%

    (4:18) 3-J.Slye 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 34 for 2 yards (31-K.Curl).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

    (1:54) 3-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 36%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 48 for -3 yards (sack split by 94-D.Payne and 96-J.Smith-Williams).