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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 21 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 48 for -3 yards (sack split by 94-D.Payne and 96-J.Smith-Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.52 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model