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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 10-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to WAS 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-38-M.Hartsfield.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.74 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model