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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 14 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 10-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model