Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 79

Washington Commanders 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

(8:34) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CAR 30, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.64 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model