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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 11

Washington Commanders 24 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 3-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.23 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model