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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 17

Washington Commanders 21 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 3-J.Slye 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.54 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model