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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 43

Washington Commanders 21 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to CAR 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.04 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model