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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 21 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 34 for 2 yards (31-K.Curl).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.00 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model