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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
Sunday 2021-11-21 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

CIN
53.3%
LV
46.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CIN on 7 more days rest than LV
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CIN offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.129 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.125 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CIN 26
–
LV 25
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CIN

Tyler Shelvin DT Questionable Knee
Auden Tate WR Questionable Thigh

LV

Alec Ingold FB Out Knee
Nick Kwiatkoski LB Out Ankle
Keisean Nixon CB Out Ankle
Brandon Facyson CB Questionable Finger
Jalen Richard RB Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 32
–
LV 13

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 FG LV (10:42) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. CIN 0 – LV 3
  • Q1 07:41 FG CIN (7:41) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – LV 3
  • Q2 11:11 FG LV (11:11) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. CIN 3 – LV 6
  • Q2 04:24 TD CIN (4:24) 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – LV 6
  • Q3 06:10 FG CIN (6:10) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 13 – LV 6
  • Q4 13:24 FG CIN (13:24) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 16 – LV 6
  • Q4 11:48 TD LV (11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – LV 12
  • Q4 05:08 TD CIN (5:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 22 – LV 13
  • Q4 03:58 TD CIN (3:58) 75-I.Prince reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right guard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 28 – LV 13
  • Q4 01:09 FG CIN (1:09) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 32 – LV 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (10:42) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 68%

    (7:41) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 49%

    (4:06) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to CIN 7, Center-47-T.Sieg. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 7 for no gain (33-R.Teamer; 7-Z.Jones).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to LV 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 39 for 12 yards (31-Mi.Thomas; 46-C.Harris).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 82%

    (11:11) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 41%

    (2:12) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 16 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:40) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to LV 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 24 for 11 yards (34-S.Perine).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:46) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to CIN 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 17 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 70%

    (6:10) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:53) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to CIN 11, Center-47-T.Sieg. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 26 for 15 yards (87-F.Moreau). FUMBLES (87-F.Moreau), ball out of bounds at CIN 21.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (13:24) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%

    (1:09) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.