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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.99 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP