4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.73 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP