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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.67 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model