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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 44

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to CIN 7, Center-47-T.Sieg. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 7 for no gain (33-R.Teamer; 7-Z.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.52 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP