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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP