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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 8

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.38 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model