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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to CIN 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP