Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to CIN 11, Center-47-T.Sieg. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 26 for 15 yards (87-F.Moreau). FUMBLES (87-F.Moreau), ball out of bounds at CIN 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.09 EP
69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model