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Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 15.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

MIA
19.8%
BUF
80.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF defense: -0.252 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BUF on 6 more days rest than MIA
  • MIA defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.190 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.135 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIA 16
–
BUF 29
Projected margin: BUF by 13 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIA

Sheldrick Redwine S Out Other
Preston Williams WR Out Other
Jerome Baker LB Questionable Knee
Noah Igbinoghene CB Questionable Knee
Greg Mancz C Questionable Groin
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Shoulder

BUF

Dawson Knox TE Out Hand
Spencer Brown T Doubtful Back
Justin Zimmer DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 11
–
BUF 26

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:52 FG BUF (3:52) 2-T.Bass 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. MIA 0 – BUF 3
  • Q2 08:14 FG MIA (8:14) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 3 – BUF 3
  • Q3 03:56 TD BUF (3:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-15-J.Phillips, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIA 3 – BUF 9
  • Q4 13:29 TD BUF (13:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-E.Ogbah]. MIA 3 – BUF 16
  • Q4 09:43 TD MIA (9:43) (No Huddle) 1-T.Tagovailoa up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – BUF 17
  • Q4 03:33 FG BUF (3:33) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. MIA 11 – BUF 20
  • Q4 01:14 TD BUF (1:14) 17-J.Allen right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 11 – BUF 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:37) 3-M.Haack punts 55 yards to MIA 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 8-J.Holland to MIA 26 for 8 yards (53-T.Dodson, 9-A.Smith).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

    (8:10) 7-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (57-A.Epenesa), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%

    (3:52) 2-T.Bass 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 20 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21%

    (14:55) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to BUF 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 19-I.McKenzie pushed ob at BUF 27 for 16 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (12:08) 3-M.Haack punts 19 yards to MIA 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 70%

    (8:14) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 22%

    (6:49) 3-M.Haack punts 41 yards to MIA 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 8-J.Holland to MIA 7 for -4 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:11) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 41%

    (:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle [43-A.Van Ginkel]. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 44.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:02) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to BUF 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 21 for 9 yards (86-M.Hollins).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:08) 3-M.Haack punts 48 yards to MIA 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 8-J.Holland to MIA 41 for 8 yards (33-S.Neal; 46-J.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-25-T.Jones, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 41.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick muffed by I.McKenzie at BUF 8, but touchback supercedes previous activity.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:22) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to BUF 31, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 41%

    (10:30) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at BUF 4 for 40 yards (21-J.Poyer).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 19 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (3:33) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.