4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to BUF 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 21 for 9 yards (86-M.Hollins).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.35 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP