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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to BUF 31, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.95 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP