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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle [43-A.Van Ginkel]. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 44.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model