Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick muffed by I.McKenzie at BUF 8, but touchback supercedes previous activity.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.01 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model