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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 19 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 17 – Miami Dolphins 11

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.71 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model