Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

(2:11) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.52 EP
71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model