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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 3-M.Haack punts 55 yards to MIA 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 8-J.Holland to MIA 26 for 8 yards (53-T.Dodson, 9-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.11 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model