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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 39

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 2-T.Bass 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.10 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP