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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Urban Meyer
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

JAX
42.9%
SEA
57.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • JAX on 8 more days rest than SEA
  • JAX defense: +0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Geno Smith (SEA) -0.100 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.074 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

JAX

Jay Tufele DT Out Hand
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Toe
Davon Hamilton DT Questionable Shoulder

SEA

Marquise Blair S Out Knee
Duane Brown T Questionable Illness
Damien Lewis G Questionable Shoulder
Alex Collins RB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 7
–
SEA 31

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:22 TD SEA (4:22) 7-G.Smith up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 09:31 TD SEA (9:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-14-D.Metcalf, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. JAX 0 – SEA 13
  • Q2 00:10 FG SEA (:10) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. JAX 0 – SEA 17
  • Q3 08:13 TD SEA (8:13) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – SEA 23
  • Q4 01:54 TD JAX (1:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 39-J.Agnew for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – SEA 24
  • Q4 01:49 TD SEA 15-M.Wright kicks onside 9 yards from JAX 35 to JAX 44. 25-T.Homer for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – SEA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 20 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 30%

    (9:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (4:22) 7-G.Smith up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (2:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to JAX 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 55%

    (6:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 39-J.Agnew [52-D.Taylor]. SEA-52-D.Taylor was injured during the play.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (:10) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 19 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to JAX 42, Center-69-T.Ott. 39-J.Agnew to SEA 45 for 13 yards (58-T.Muse).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 58%

    (11:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Shenault.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:08) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 18-F.Swain pushed ob at 50 for 20 yards (53-D.Allen). PENALTY on JAX-49-C.Russell, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 37%

    (4:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to JAX 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 32%

    (14:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 85-D.Arnold [26-R.Neal].

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 27%

    (12:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to JAX 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 16 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to JAX 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 20 for 4 yards (89-W.Dissly).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 39-J.Agnew for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.