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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to JAX 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model