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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 85-D.Arnold [26-R.Neal].

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.38 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.50 EP