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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(6:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 39-J.Agnew [52-D.Taylor]. SEA-52-D.Taylor was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model