Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(13:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to JAX 42, Center-69-T.Ott. 39-J.Agnew to SEA 45 for 13 yards (58-T.Muse).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.86 EP
70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 86, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model