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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 84

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 18-F.Swain pushed ob at 50 for 20 yards (53-D.Allen). PENALTY on JAX-49-C.Russell, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.49 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 84, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 42, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP