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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 20 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.92 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model