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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 46

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to JAX 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model