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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 9

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 39-J.Agnew for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model