4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SEA Away

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2021-10-17 · 20:20 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

SEA
61.4%
PIT
38.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -0.040 vs Geno Smith (SEA) +0.258 EPA/dropback (SEA starting Geno Smith in place of Russell Wilson)
  • SEA defense: +0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • SEA on 3 more days rest than PIT
  • PIT offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 26
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SEA

Chris Carson RB Out Neck
Cedric Ogbuehi T Out Biceps
Russell Wilson QB Out right Finger

PIT

JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Shoulder
Carlos Davis DT Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 20
–
PIT 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:04 TD PIT (10:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 01:07 TD PIT (1:07) 85-E.Ebron left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – PIT 13
  • Q3 09:59 TD SEA (9:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Collins up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – PIT 14
  • Q3 05:50 FG PIT (5:50) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. SEA 7 – PIT 17
  • Q3 03:06 TD SEA (3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 89-W.Dissly for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – PIT 17
  • Q4 13:04 FG SEA (13:04) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – PIT 17
  • Q4 01:35 FG PIT (1:35) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. SEA 17 – PIT 20
  • Q4 00:02 FG SEA (:02) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 20 – PIT 20
  • Q5 02:55 FG PIT (2:55) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. SEA 20 – PIT 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (12:26) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to SEA 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (10:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to PIT 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 31 for 6 yards (57-C.Barton).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 27%

    (8:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-F.Swain to SEA 16 for 3 yards (24-B.Snell).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 46%

    (5:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:47) 6-P.Harvin punts 58 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-F.Swain to SEA 21 for 14 yards (44-D.Watt).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (14:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 24 yards to PIT 46, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 18 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to PIT 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 16 for no gain (25-T.Homer).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to PIT 41, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-57-C.Barton.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:20) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (5:50) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:31) 6-P.Harvin punts 32 yards to SEA 42, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 89%

    (13:04) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 14 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 57%

    (9:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 50 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 18 for 3 yards (31-J.Layne).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to PIT 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 26 for 14 yards (59-J.Rhattigan, 31-D.Dallas).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 69%

    (1:35) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.